Team velocity: how to calculate and use it
Velocity is the most important metric for a Scrum team. It tells you how many story points the team delivers per sprint and is the foundation for all realistic planning.
How to calculate velocity
Velocity = sum of story points for stories delivered in the sprint
Important: you only count what was fully completed (Definition of Done met). Half-finished work doesn’t count.
Practical example
| Sprint | Planned points | Delivered points |
|---|---|---|
| Sprint 1 | 30 | 22 |
| Sprint 2 | 28 | 25 |
| Sprint 3 | 30 | 24 |
| Sprint 4 | 26 | 26 |
Average velocity = (22 + 25 + 24 + 26) / 4 = 24.25 points/sprint
Velocity vs capacity
Velocity is what the team has historically delivered. Capacity is what the team can deliver in the upcoming sprint, accounting for absences.
If the average velocity is 24 points and 2 out of 6 team members will be on vacation next sprint (33% less), the adjusted capacity would be: 24 x 0.67 = 16 points.
How many sprints of data do you need?
- Sprint 1: no velocity exists yet. Make an educated guess and accept it will be imprecise
- Sprints 2-3: a trend is emerging, but it’s still volatile
- Sprint 4+: the average starts becoming reliable for planning
Use the average of the last 3-5 sprints as your baseline. Older data may no longer reflect the team’s current reality.
What to do with velocity
Sprint planning
If the average velocity is 24 points, plan at most 24 points. Not 28 hoping that “this time it’ll work out.”
Release estimation
If the backlog has 240 points and velocity is 24 points/sprint, it’ll take ~10 sprints to complete. With 2-week sprints, that’s ~20 weeks or ~5 months.
Identifying problems
Sudden drops in velocity indicate:
- Unresolved impediments
- Changes in team composition
- Accumulated technical debt
- Calibrated estimates (if the team was overestimating before)
Common mistakes with velocity
Comparing across teams
Velocity is relative. A team with a velocity of 40 isn’t “better” than one with 20 — each team calibrates its scale differently.
Using it as a performance metric
Turning velocity into an individual KPI or performance measure incentivizes inflating estimates. The team starts giving everything 8 points instead of 5.
Ignoring variations
If velocity oscillates between 15 and 35, the average of 25 tells you very little. Use a confidence interval (e.g., “we deliver between 18-30 points”) instead of a single number.
Counting incomplete work
If an 8-point story is 90% done, it counts as zero points. Partial credit destroys the reliability of the metric.
Improving accuracy
- Keep team composition stable — people coming and going affect velocity
- Review past estimates — recalibrate based on what was over/under-estimated
- Track it on a chart — visualize the trend, not just the current number
- Use a velocity range — plan with the worst case (minimum of the last 3 sprints) to stay conservative
Useful charts
- Velocity Chart: bars showing planned vs delivered points per sprint
- Velocity Trend: line with a moving average of recent sprints
- Sprint Burndown: daily progress within the sprint
Conclusion
Velocity is your compass, not your destination. Use it to plan realistically, identify trends, and improve continuously — but never as a weapon to pressure the team. A team that understands its velocity is a team that plans with confidence.