Estimation Without Planning Poker: Alternative Techniques
estimation techniques agile
Planning Poker is the most popular estimation technique, but it is not the only one. For large backlogs, new teams, or quick sessions, other techniques can be more efficient.
Affinity Estimation
How It Works
- Write all stories on cards
- Create columns on the wall: Very Small, Small, Medium, Large, Very Large
- The team silently organizes the cards, one by one
- Discuss only items with disagreement
- Assign values (Fibonacci) to each column
When to Use
- Large backlogs — works for 20–40 items at once
- First estimation — when the team does not have a calibrated scale
- Prioritization workshops — with non-technical stakeholders
Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons | |
|---|---|---|
| Affinity | Fast for many items | Less precise than Poker |
Bucket System
How It Works
- Create “buckets” with pre-defined values (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13)
- Each member picks an item and places it in the bucket they consider correct
- If there is disagreement, discuss and reposition
- Continue until all items are classified
When to Use
- Experienced teams — who already understand the scale
- Quick refinement — for relatively well-understood items
Value/Effort Ordering
How It Works
- List all items
- Order by effort (left = lower, right = higher)
- Order by value (top = higher value, bottom = lower)
- High value + low effort items are quick wins
When to Use
- Prioritization workshops — with the PO and stakeholders
- Roadmap planning — high-level product vision
Planning Oranges (or “Card Ordering”)
How It Works
The facilitator spreads cards on the wall in ascending order of effort. The team discusses and adjusts positions. More visual and intuitive than Planning Poker.
Pros and Cons
| Pros | Cons | |
|---|---|---|
| Visual | Intuitive, good for all levels | Takes up physical or digital space |
| Fast | 20–30 min for 30 items | Less precise for large items |
Dot Voting
How It Works
- Place the items on a board
- Each member receives 3–5 “dots” (stickers or digital votes)
- Vote on the items that seem the most complex
- Items with more votes = higher estimate
When to Use
- Very quick sessions — 15 minutes for 20 items
- Backlog triage — when you just need a rough sense of size
Comparison of Techniques
| Technique | Speed | Precision | Items per Session | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Planning Poker | Moderate | High | 10–15 | Sprint planning |
| Affinity | Fast | Medium | 20–40 | Large backlogs |
| Bucket System | Moderate | High | 15–30 | Experienced teams |
| Value/Effort Ordering | Fast | Medium | 15–25 | Prioritization |
| Dot Voting | Very fast | Low | 20+ | Quick triage |
Which One to Choose?
- Sprint Planning: Planning Poker or Bucket System
- Backlog refinement: Affinity or Bucket System
- Prioritization workshop: Value/Effort or Dot Voting
- New teams: Affinity (more visual, intuitive)
- Mature teams: Planning Poker (deep discussion)
Conclusion
Planning Poker is great, but it is not a silver bullet. For many items, Affinity is faster. For prioritization, Value/Effort is more visual. Combine techniques depending on the moment and the goal of the session.